PREDICTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES BY PRECEDENTS IN SEISMIC PREHISTORY OF THE REGION

9th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference - SGEM2009, www.sgem.org, SGEM2009 Conference Proceedings/ ISBN 10: 954-91818-1-2, June 14-19, 2009, Vol. 2, 143-146 pp

ABSTRACT

The offered method is based on consideration of seismic process as a process of Earth’s
crust destruction by seismogenetic breaks of different size and location, connected with
each other. Special mathematical methods of handling are used to reveal these
connections of earthquakes (EQs) that determine place and time of a preparing strong
EQ.
We’ll divide EQs (1) by their strength in magnitudes, for example 5.0 and 7.0, into
weak, moderate, and strong, and (2) by depth, for example 15 and 40 km, into surfacial,
normal and deep-focus ones. Statistical analysis [1] shows that distribution between
deep-focus EQs is close to uniform one, and EQs of this type are weak, so we will not
cover them because of ineffectiveness of prediction of strong ones. But time stretches
between more strong EQs show complicated regularity, based on dichotomic division of
the solar cycle. In classification by depth, only normal EQs have such regularity. So we
predict normal strong EQs.