DBPapers

VALUE AT RISK IN A VOLATILE CONTEXT OF NATURAL DISASTER RISK

AUTHOR/S: A. I. MONDLANE
Sunday 1 August 2010 by Libadmin2010

10th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference - SGEM2010, www.sgem.org, SGEM2010 Conference Proceedings/ ISBN 10: 954-91818-1-2, June 20-26, 2010, Vol. 2, 309-318 pp

ABSTRACT

For many years, natural disasters were perceived as unavoidable strokes of misfortune
brought about by nature’s unpredictable forces. Taking into consideration the magnitude of
the tsunami in Asia in 2004, the heavy floods in Mozambique in 2000, and Hurricane Mitch
in Central America in 1998, we can see that developing countries are the most victims of
such events, mostly due to their limited capacities and resources to mitigate disasters.

On another hand is quite visible the efforts that are put on places both to reduce
vulnerability of social and economic assets all over the world and high amounts of money
invested in order to make the world more comfortable for everybody.

Paradoxically, the development of world together with the increase of the world population
has become one of the problems that create instability worldwide. The increase of
greenhouse effect, climate change and megacities are the primarily indicators of such
situation. Direct correlation exists between the increase of number of economic damages
and human losses with the magnitude of natural disaster hazards. Many socio-economic
assets and human lives are at risk as a direct result of volatile environment at which they
are exposed.

Societies that are unable to adequately protect themselves from natural hazards and their
impacts are at particular risk. As a consequence of poverty, a surge in population growth,
the overuse of natural resources, and shortfalls in institutional capacities, affected groups
are frequently unable to prevent disasters. Moreover, global climate change is increasing
the frequency and intensity of natural hazards, with catastrophic results. This paper stresses
the correlation between the volatile environment and value (elements) at risk that influence
the impact over social and economic assets worldwide.

Keywords: Value at risk, volatility, risk, hazard, correlation