DOI: 10.5593/SGEM2014/B53/S21.044


N. Skrylnikova, P.Shchetinin, K. Ponomaryov
Wednesday 1 October 2014 by Libadmin2014

References: 14th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2014, www.sgem.org, SGEM2014 Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7105-19-3 / ISSN 1314-2704, June 19-25, 2014, Book 5, Vol. 3, 331-338 pp

This article investigates the problems associated with long-term prognosis and strategic planning for a system indicating energy intensity at the macro, meso, and micro levels. The analysis focuses on the energy intensity of the GDP, and is modeled on conservative, innovative and accelerated scenarios for long-term socio-economic development in the Russian Federation until the year 2030. The article studies the practical application of modern technological foresight using the examples of two priority areas for the development of science, technology and equipment in the Russian Federation. The two examples used are ‘effective environmental management’ and ‘energy efficiency and conservation’. We examine a list of national critical technologies that correspond to these priority areas in the aspects of long-term scientific, technological, socio-economic prognosis, and fiscal policies to stimulate corporate expenditures on research and development. Then, we evaluate the guidelines for Russian ecological evelopment policies in the period until 2030. The guidelines are aimed at solving socio-economic problems by providing low-carbon solutions for sustainable evelopment, as well as the preservation of the environment, biodiversity, natural resources, and the realization of every person’s right to a clean environment. A comparative analysis has been performed on ‘effective environmental management’ as well as ‘energy efficiency and conservation’, which are designated as national priorities of the Russian Federation, and ‘green technology’, a priority of international centers of scientific and technological development. Finally, conclusions were drawn about the potential impact of the mass use of energy-efficient technologies to reduce the anthropogenic load on the environment by reducing energy intensity, as well as about improving the ecological situation by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other harmful pollutants. The approaches to the development of ecommendations for the implementation of general provisions for the ‘Russian Climate Doctrine’ in part increase energy efficiency in all sectors of the economy, and also decrease market disproportions by implementing financial and fiscal policy measures which stimulate the reduction of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases.

Keywords: strategic planning, ecological development policies, technological foresight, national critical technologies, Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation