DBPapers
DOI: 10.5593/SGEM2014/B31/S12.032

ENSEMBLE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM IN ST. PETERSBURG

A. Kalyuzhnaya, D. Nasonov
Wednesday 1 October 2014 by Libadmin2014

References: 14th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2014, www.sgem.org, SGEM2014 Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7105-13-1 / ISSN 1314-2704, June 19-25, 2014, Book 3, Vol. 1, 247-256 pp

ABSTRACT
This paper discusses two main classes of tasks for flood risk assessment. The first class analyzes feasible flood damage in the conditions when the barrier system has inoperable state and therefore there is no way to control flood flowing. In this case we use historical data and assessment methods based on principles of extreme value theory. Also for predicted flood that might happen in the nearest time we execute an ensemble on variable input atmospheric data to estimate uncertainty of prediction models. The second class is connected with assessment of produced plans for sluice gate maneuvering. In this case flood evolvement can be controlled. Technical characteristics of the barrier system, model forecast and procedures of plan elaboration add uncertainty in final proposal for making decision phase. Thus the risk assessments also based on ensemble techniques can be useful to decrease possibility of unsafe plan selection. Controllable risk also allows optimizing extent of possible damage.

Keywords: floods in Saint-Petersburg, ensemble forecast, probabilistic risk assessment, uncertainty estimation, decision support for flood warning