DBPapers
DOI: 10.5593/SGEM2014/B21/S8.077

FORECASTING OF SNOW COVER MELTING RATES IN PERM REGION BASED ON THE RESULTS OF SATELITE MONITORING USING CELLULAR AUTOMATA METHOD

S. Pyankov, S. Rusakov, A. Shihov
Wednesday 1 October 2014 by Libadmin2014

References: 14th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2014, www.sgem.org, SGEM2014 Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7105-10-0 / ISSN 1314-2704, June 19-25, 2014, Book 2, Vol. 1, 601-606 pp

ABSTRACT
The paper presents problems, which are connected with satellite monitoring of snowmelt process in the Perm region. It is represented research data of 2011, according to which almost every day only a small part of the observed territory can be identified due to the effect of clouds. It is proposed the algorithm, based on cellular automata method allowing forecast snow cover melting in areas, which are not currently available to satellite monitoring. The idea of the algorithm is that each territory "cell" may be in the 5- states: «there is no snow», «presumably there is no snow», «uncertain situation», «presumably there is snow», and «there is snow». Recalculation of the transition from one state to another is based on daily observations. Herewith, it is estimated the probability of the transition for «unobservable» cells. Analysis of observations and forecast estimates has showed that trend of snow cover melting rate coincides with high accuracy in the both cases. This result can serve as indirect evidence of the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: satellite monitoring, snow cover area, cellular automata, forecast.

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