LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF THE NEVA RIVER MEAN ANNUAL DISCHARGE BY STOCHASTIC MODELS

References: 13th SGEM GeoConference on Water Resources. Forest, Marine And Ocean Ecosystems, www.sgem.org, SGEM2013 Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7105-02-5 / ISSN 1314-2704, June 16-22, 2013, 197 - 204 pp

ABSTRACT

In the paper, the long-term discharge prediction of the Neva River runoff using stochastic models is made. The following models were used: Autoregressive Model AR(29), several Periodic Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Box-Jenkins models of PARIMA(p,d,q)x(P,D,Q)29, and harmonic model. Prediction is based on historical time series of yearly discharges of the Neva River during the period 1859–2010. The prediction for next decades was made. According to the stochastic models used, we can expect that high flows should prevail in the Neva River basin in next years with maximum discharges occurring in 2015–2017. As the probability of floods is higher during the wet periods, one can expect that the extreme flood can occur in next years similar to the 1924 or 1824 floods.

Keywords: long-term discharge prediction, Neva River, Box-Jenkins models, harmonic model