PROJECTIONS FOR THE LATVIAN CEREAL SECTOR

References: 17th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2017, www.sgemviennagreen.org, SGEM2017 Vienna GREEN Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7408-29-4 / ISSN 1314-2704, 27 - 29 November, 2017, Vol. 17, Issue 63, 309-318 pp; DOI: 10.5593/sgem2017H/63/S25.040

ABSTRACT

Cereal farming is an important sector of agriculture in Latvia, which determines the development of crop farming. In 2015, 22.5 thousand farms were engaged in cereal production in Latvia. Of the total output of cereals, 64% were produced by intensive farms with an area of more than 200 ha, which accounted for a few percent of the total cereal farms. The cereal sector has developed in Latvia after joining the European Union (EU) owing to direct support payments and export opportunities. It is important to project the development of industries in any country for decision-making purposes. The overall objective of the research is to develop a dynamic simulation model for cereal production in Latvia. In 2016, the Latvian Agricultural Sector Analysis Model (LASAM) was developed, which allows projecting the development of agricultural industries, including the cereal sector. The model projects steady growth for the cereal sector in Latvia, which represents the basis for the overall growth in crop farming. By 2050 compared with 2015, the total cereal area is going to increase in Latvia, and the overall growth of the cereal sector will be determined by an increase in the output of wheat.

Keywords: grain production, projections, modelling