ESTIMATING MULTIDIMENSIONAL TIME SERIES ON KEY GLOBAL CROPS PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA

References: 17th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2017, www.sgem.org, SGEM2017 Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7408-01-0 / ISSN 1314-2704, 29 June - 5 July, 2017, Vol. 17, Issue 21, 295-302 pp, DOI: 10.5593/sgem2017/21/S07.038

ABSTRACT

Time series on quantities, areas harvested and yield average of key global crops in Bulgaria – wheat, maize, rise and soybean – are stored in multidimensional database. The developed software modules for statistical processing are embedded into database to give better operability than known software systems with Graphical User Interface. Time series on key global crops production in Bulgaria on national and regional level are studied for the period 2002-2015. Comparative data analysis on two sub-periods with the same length is carried out. This study emphasis on the crop yield dynamic and regional differences regarding wheat and maize production. Increasing rate of wheat yields per year in Bulgaria (3.31%) and by geographical regions (1.46% ÷ 5.11%) is estimated. Statistical analysis shows higher maize yield variations compared to wheat ones. The maize yield growing is estimated through applying weighted moving average method. The regional difference in wheat and maize yields can be explained with environmental and climate conditions (soil, temperatures, precipitation), irrigation possibilities and experience in grain production. The results of this study show positive tendency in key crops production in Bulgaria especially for wheat and maize. Scientific studies on key crops cultivation in the country, financial investments, engineering solutions and marketing efforts should work in accordance to keep this tendency.

Keywords: time series, multidimensional database, geographical regions, crop yield, regional differences