DBPapers
DOI: 10.5593/sgem2017/41/S19.078

THE DYNAMICS OF THE FLOW OF THE RIVER URAL IN THE CONDITIONS OF MODERN CLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

A. Cherednichenko, A. Cherednichenko, V. Cherednichenko, T. Baichonova, R. Abdrachimov
Tuesday 12 September 2017 by Libadmin2017

References: 17th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2017, www.sgem.org, SGEM2017 Conference Proceedings, ISBN 978-619-7408-06-5 / ISSN 1314-2704, 29 June - 5 July, 2017, Vol. 17, Issue 41, 613-630 pp, DOI: 10.5593/sgem2017/41/S19.078

ABSTRACT

On the basis of data on the temporal dynamics of cross-border flow of the Ural River and the dynamics of the climate in the region during the twentieth century, as well as information about changes in land use and economic activity of surface runoff estimated sensitivity to climate change. Changing of a climatic temperature within 0.50С and rainfall of 10 mm results in a change of water flow rate of 110 m³ / s flow and 20 m³ / s accordingly. Clearly, therefore, the is a high sensitivity of runoff from even weak climate variations in temperature and precipitation. From the analysis of the time water flow row it follows that, despite the increase in temperature in the region in recent decades, not only the runoff has not decreased, but even slightly increased, which we attribute to a slight increase in rainfall in the catchment area amid rising temperature. In the second half of the twentieth century in the Ural River, it was built several large reservoirs. As a result, the interannual variability of the spring and autumn runoff decreased significantly, which we view as a positive factor. Water withdrawals for irrigation and evaporation and infiltration across the bed of the river are mainly determined by the loss of a drain on the Kazakhstan site.

Keywords: transboundary Ural River, arid zone, climate change, sensitivity of runoff to climate change, impact of climate change on runoff.